Forced and chaotic ocean variability: toward probabilistic oceanography.

›9:00 (1h30)

Fingerprints of intrinsic variability in OGCMs

› Lliboutry conference room

9:00 - 10:30 (1h30)

Fingerprints of intrinsic variability in OGCMs

Lliboutry conference room

› Maintenance of the seasonal cycle and interannual variability by intra-seasonal stochastic variability in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean - Martin Claus, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel 09:00-09:20 (20min)

› Does ocean intrinsic variability impact deep convection? Answers from Mediterranean sea ensemble simulations. - Robin Waldman, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques 09:20-09:40 (20min)

› Response of biogeochemical tracers to ocean intrinsic variability - Sarah Berthet, CNRM GMGEC/EST 09:40-10:00 (20min)

› Probabilistic Study of the subtropical North Atlantic variability - Ixetl Garcia, Institut des Geosciences de l'Environnement (IGE) 10:00-10:20 (20min)

›10:30 (30min)

Coffee break

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10:30 - 11:00 (30min)

Coffee break

Lliboutry conference room

›11:00 (1h30)

Intrinsic variability : AMOC — predictability

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11:00 - 12:30 (1h30)

Intrinsic variability : AMOC — predictability

Lliboutry conference room

› Intrinsic and atmospherically-forced variability of the AMOC: insights from a large ensemble ocean hindcast - stephanie leroux, Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement 11:00-11:20 (20min)

› Chaotic vs externally forced variability of the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation on intra and inter-annual timescales. - Agathe Germe, National Oceanography Centre 11:20-11:40 (20min)

› Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability in forced COREII versus coupled CMIP5 simulations - Eric Chassignet, COAPS/FSU 11:40-12:00 (20min)

› Impact of mesoscale turbulence on oceanic predictability in an optimal dissimilation framework - Simon Müller, Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton 12:00-12:20 (20min)

›12:30 (1h30)

Lunch

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12:30 - 14:00 (1h30)

Lunch

Lliboutry conference room

›14:00 (1h30)

Model uncertainties and stochastic parameterizations

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14:00 - 15:30 (1h30)

Model uncertainties and stochastic parameterizations

Lliboutry conference room

› Downscaling model errors in the Bay of Biscay - Malek Ghantous, Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales 14:00-14:20 (20min)

› A generic approach to explicit simulation of uncertainty in the NEMO ocean model - Jean-Michel Brankart, IGE/MEOM 14:20-14:40 (20min)

› Bayesian Analysis of a New Model of Ocean Heat Uptake - Balu Nadiga, Los Alamos National Laboratory [Los Alamos] 14:40-15:00 (20min)

› Ocean Turbulence: parametrizations, uncertainty and stochasticity - Laure Zanna, Oxford 15:00-15:20 (20min)

›15:30 (30min)

Break

15:30 - 16:00 (30min)

Break

›16:00 (1h30)

Open discussion — Wrap-up

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16:00 - 17:30 (1h30)

Open discussion — Wrap-up

Lliboutry conference room