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Theoretical and model studies show that the ocean is an atmospherically-modulated chaotic system whose evolution is sensitive to small perturbations, even over long (up to multidecadal) time scales. In other words, the oceanic evolution has a marked but poorly-known stochastic character: it must be simulated and interpreted in a probabilistic way. This two-day workshop will concern the dynamical origin, the structure, the observational imprints and the climatic implications of this inherent uncertainty, the modelling strategies and diagnostic approaches required to address these questions.

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